Why Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek are favourites at this year’s French Open
Aryna Sabalenka has been hit with injuries, while Elena Rybakina's form is not red hot despite the Stuttgart title
Going by the recent results on the women’s tour, upheaval and a few surprises may be expected at the French Open, starting Sunday, with the top names either unfit or lacking form. Going by the recent history of women’s tennis, though, the top names, with their surface expertise and track record of recovering their best games on the biggest stages, may be expected to re-establish some order.
No players are more likely to do so than the two best claycourters of this decade. Coco Gauff has reached two finals at Roland Garros in the past four years and won one of them. Iga Swiatek has won four titles in Paris since the turn of the decade. Both have gone through a considerable amount of churn in the past 12 months: technical shifts, coaching changes, exposure of their weaknesses. Neither have won a title this year.
But those who pipped them to the summit of the sport in their lean patch have hit unexpected roadblocks. The year started with Elena Rybakina establishing herself as a top name with the Australian Open title. Then Aryna Sabalenka established her hold to the World No. 1 spot – now for the last 70 weeks – by winning in Indian Wells and Miami, but injuries stalled her progress. Rybakina, meanwhile, did win a title on clay in Stuttgart but that was in a weak field and in indoor conditions that don’t mirror Paris at all.
It has allowed for Gauff and Swiatek – who reached the final and semifinal at last week’s Italian Open respectively – to put themselves back in the mix and kick off an intriguing four-way fight to the finish among the top seeds, without a clear favourite.
For both Gauff and Swiatek, the surface gives them the edge. Swiatek is an easy early pick for the title – even a slim consensus favourite among the bookmakers – thanks to her clay pedigree. But ever since she won Wimbledon last year, her form took a downturn, especially her forehand that lost its sting and aura of intimidation. But nowhere does it hurt opponents’ more under the baking sun, on the Parisian clay. Having joined hands with Francisco Roig, a former member of Rafael Nadal’s team, results are expected at this tournament for the erstwhile ‘queen of clay.’
No other player on the women’s tour has the appetite to fight and defend like defending champion Gauff, and no other surface rewards this more than clay. But since winning Roland Garros last year, her form took a nose-dive. There are obvious areas of improvement in her technique, from a lasso-like forehand that dithers too much and a serve, which, while dangerous when firing, leaks too many errors when the chips are down.
Swiatek’s recent struggles seem to be psychological, Gauff’s technical. Which is probably why they thrive in physical, slow-burn contests on the crushed red brick. If they were coming into any other Major, their stock would be considerably lower.
It would be so too if there was an overwhelming form favourite for this tournament. Even if the likes of Sabalenka and Swiatek have established consistency at the Majors, women’s tennis has not shed its reputation for unpredictability. The competitive curve, as well as the ruthlessness of the best-of-three-sets format, makes the running tough for the top seeds. It remains so going into the French Open, where a string of outsiders are capable of springing a surprise.
The recent title-winners deserve the first mention. The Tour has revelled in the feel-good story of two Ukrainians winning on the big stage recently as war rages on back home. Marta Kostyuk was the big surprise, winning a topsy-turvy Madrid Open.
Elina Svitolina was the more capable of the compatriots, defeating Rybakina, Swiatek and Gauff back-to-back to win the Italian Open. Coupled with a run to the Australian Open semifinal, Svitolina is putting together a solid season. But she has not quite yet got the results on the big stage to give her the favourite tag. Ten years ago, Svitolina would have been a sleeper pick for the French Open. In that time, she has had a down turn in form, become a mother, and returned to the Top 10. But she still hasn’t lifted into the category of mainstay of Grand Slam contender.
Both Ukrainians are in Swiatek’s section of the draw. Sabalenka, too, has a couple of tough assignments with Naomi Osaka lurking, as well as a potential quarterfinal against ninth seed Victoria Mboko or fifth seed Jessica Pegula. Clay may not be either player’s strong suits but given the fact that they are on the rise, they seem capable of ruining a top name’s path. The same can’t be said for the Russian eighth seed Mirra Andreeva. Clay is her strong suit, and for long she has been touted to take the next step in her career. A favourable draw, in Rybakina’s section, gives her every chance of doing so.
Going by the recent results on the women’s tour, upheaval and a few surprises may be expected at the French Open, starting Sunday, with the top names either unfit or lacking form. Going by the recent history of women’s tennis, though, the top names, with their surface expertise and track record of recovering their best games on the biggest stages, may be expected to re-establish some order.
No players are more likely to do so than the two best claycourters of this decade. Coco Gauff has reached two finals at Roland Garros in the past four years and won one of them. Iga Swiatek has won four titles in Paris since the turn of the decade. Both have gone through a considerable amount of churn in the past 12 months: technical shifts, coaching changes, exposure of their weaknesses. Neither have won a title this year.
But those who pipped them to the summit of the sport in their lean patch have hit unexpected roadblocks. The year started with Elena Rybakina establishing herself as a top name with the Australian Open title. Then Aryna Sabalenka established her hold to the World No. 1 spot – now for the last 70 weeks – by winning in Indian Wells and Miami, but injuries stalled her progress. Rybakina, meanwhile, did win a title on clay in Stuttgart but that was in a weak field and in indoor conditions that don’t mirror Paris at all.
It has allowed for Gauff and Swiatek – who reached the final and semifinal at last week’s Italian Open respectively – to put themselves back in the mix and kick off an intriguing four-way fight to the finish among the top seeds, without a clear favourite.
For both Gauff and Swiatek, the surface gives them the edge. Swiatek is an easy early pick for the title – even a slim consensus favourite among the bookmakers – thanks to her clay pedigree. But ever since she won Wimbledon last year, her form took a downturn, especially her forehand that lost its sting and aura of intimidation. But nowhere does it hurt opponents’ more under the baking sun, on the Parisian clay. Having joined hands with Francisco Roig, a former member of Rafael Nadal’s team, results are expected at this tournament for the erstwhile ‘queen of clay.’
No other player on the women’s tour has the appetite to fight and defend like defending champion Gauff, and no other surface rewards this more than clay. But since winning Roland Garros last year, her form took a nose-dive. There are obvious areas of improvement in her technique, from a lasso-like forehand that dithers too much and a serve, which, while dangerous when firing, leaks too many errors when the chips are down.
Swiatek’s recent struggles seem to be psychological, Gauff’s technical. Which is probably why they thrive in physical, slow-burn contests on the crushed red brick. If they were coming into any other Major, their stock would be considerably lower.
It would be so too if there was an overwhelming form favourite for this tournament. Even if the likes of Sabalenka and Swiatek have established consistency at the Majors, women’s tennis has not shed its reputation for unpredictability. The competitive curve, as well as the ruthlessness of the best-of-three-sets format, makes the running tough for the top seeds. It remains so going into the French Open, where a string of outsiders are capable of springing a surprise.
The recent title-winners deserve the first mention. The Tour has revelled in the feel-good story of two Ukrainians winning on the big stage recently as war rages on back home. Marta Kostyuk was the big surprise, winning a topsy-turvy Madrid Open.
Elina Svitolina was the more capable of the compatriots, defeating Rybakina, Swiatek and Gauff back-to-back to win the Italian Open. Coupled with a run to the Australian Open semifinal, Svitolina is putting together a solid season. But she has not quite yet got the results on the big stage to give her the favourite tag. Ten years ago, Svitolina would have been a sleeper pick for the French Open. In that time, she has had a down turn in form, become a mother, and returned to the Top 10. But she still hasn’t lifted into the category of mainstay of Grand Slam contender.
Both Ukrainians are in Swiatek’s section of the draw. Sabalenka, too, has a couple of tough assignments with Naomi Osaka lurking, as well as a potential quarterfinal against ninth seed Victoria Mboko or fifth seed Jessica Pegula. Clay may not be either player’s strong suits but given the fact that they are on the rise, they seem capable of ruining a top name’s path. The same can’t be said for the Russian eighth seed Mirra Andreeva. Clay is her strong suit, and for long she has been touted to take the next step in her career. A favourable draw, in Rybakina’s section, gives her every chance of doing so.
