On Taiwan Strait, Beijing’s gambit, Taipei’s gamble

With the lack of consensus between the DPP and the KMT on vital national issues, Cheng Li-wun’s meeting with Xi Jinp ing could also be seen as elevating Taiwan’s vulnerabilities, not mitigating them

Given the traditional interactions between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party of China, the meeting earlier this month between Cheng Li-wun of Taiwan’s main opposition party and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have been treated as a routine affair. But it assumed significance for several reasons.

First, there is a growing realisation in China that its aggressive policies have emboldened the Taiwanese to assert self-rule, enabling the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to remain in power for the last decade. By inviting the KMT’s chairwoman, President Xi aimed to reaffirm historical, social, cultural, and ancestral linkages that connect people across the Taiwan Strait. Second, Cheng Li-wun’s visit was intended to depict that a peaceful solution to tensions regarding reunification could be possible if the KMT came to power in the 2028 presidential election. Third, it sent a message of peace and reconciliation to the rest of the world.

The meeting also signalled that a large section of the Taiwanese people are still in favour of unification. The timing of this is important, when the US’s reputation as a champion of world peace is at its weakest point. Fourth, as the KMT-led opposition parties continue to be critical of the Lai government’s US$40 billion defence budget to purchase US arms, the visit was intended to challenge the DPP government’s claim that such a large allocation is necessary.

Fifth, the US has remained the most important country for Taiwan’s security. With Cheng Li-wun’s trip just before President Trump’s expected summit in China, Beijing aimed to underscore the limits of the US’s influence over Taiwan and secure a favourable trade deal between China and the US.

Nonetheless, any effort to address the Taiwan Strait conflict through peaceful means is a welcome development. Yet, China’s refusal to hold talks with Taiwan’s ruling party casts a big question mark on Beijing’s commitment. Eexperts have also dubbed Cheng Li-wun’s visit as another effort to create confusion about Taiwan’s status. A section of the KMT has also expressed concern that it could be used by other parties to portray her as playing into China’s hands. The US, too, is upset, because her statements have portrayed Washington as a source of risk rather than a deterrent against China. With the lack of consensus between the DPP and the KMT on vital national issues, Cheng Li-wun’s meeting with Xi Jinping could also be seen as elevating Taiwan’s vulnerabilities, not mitigating them.

The writer is Ministry of Foreign Affairs Visiting Fellow, National Chengchi University, Taipei