North vs South — a manufactured fault line

It has not reached a dangerous level yet. But that doesn’t call for complacent handling of the sentiment

By defeating the 131st Amendment to the Constitution, which was intended to facilitate implementation of the 106th Amendment passed in 2023 — which guarantees 33 per cent reservation to women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies — the Opposition has done great injustice not only to the women of the country but also to states in South and East India. The 131st Amendment was to implement the reservation based on the 2011 Census and not wait for the results of the 2026 Census. Any sensible leader would have welcomed it as the ruling party’s magnanimity. The next Census will almost certainly throw up a demographic scenario in which states in South and East India would see their population figures declining due to factors like better implementation of family planning programmes and greater out-migration. On the other hand, there is a likelihood of the population figures rising in the Hindi heartland.

Rough estimates indicate that seven states in South and East India — Andhra Pradesh (-5), Telangana (-3), Tamil Nadu (-10), Karnataka (-2), Kerala (-7), Odisha (-4) and West Bengal (-4) — could together lose up to 35 seats in the new scenario, while states where the BJP is stronger, like Uttar Pradesh (+12), Bihar (+10), Madhya Pradesh (+5), and Rajasthan (+7), could see a gain of 34 seats. If the BJP were to look at its own electoral interest, it would have waited for the new Census to set delimitation in motion. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered to implement delimitation based on the 2011 Census, which would have maintained the status quo in terms of the number of seats in each state due to the 25-year freeze in place since 2001. As far as the proposed overall number of seats was concerned, he offered a pro rata increase so that states in South and East India would have gained seats in the same ratio as those in the North.

The Opposition put forth the specious argument that the new delimitation formula would be an injustice to South India because it would increase the gap in the number of seats between South and North. There are no political units called “South” or “North” India. They are imaginary geographical units. The Opposition’s effort to create a political divide on these lines is reprehensible and dangerous.

Incidentally, not all parties fell for the emotive card played by the Congress and its allies. Three major parties in Andhra Pradesh — Telugu Desam, YSR Congress and Jana Sena — refused to toe the Opposition line and stood by the government in Parliament. But there is a need to ensure that the “injustice to the South” narrative is nipped in the bud.

There have been instances in the past when some in the South raised their voice against perceived injustice. There was a strong anti-Hindi movement in Tamil Nadu for decades after Independence, fuelling anti-North India sentiment. In the 1980s, the Telugu film icon N T Rama Rao raised the slogan of self-respect of the Telugu people and rode to power on the wave created by that sentiment. He even challenged the very idea of the “Centre”. In recent years, there were efforts to mobilise the southern states in the name of economic injustice through GST and other budgetary provisions. Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah openly criticised the central government for “financial strangulation of performing states”. Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin insinuated that the Centre’s policies based on the “one nation” concept are “a direct attack on the diversity of South India”. He insisted that India is “a union of states, not a monolith”. Finance ministers of some southern Indian states held a couple of meetings in recent years, and they seem to have formed an informal pressure group within the GST Council.

All this indicates that there is a persistent effort to create a sense of injustice in the southern states. It has not reached a dangerous level yet. But that doesn’t call for complacent handling of the sentiment. This has become even more essential given the fact that the delimitation exercise will now have to take place based on the new Census, which is bound to generate more heat and dust.

Ambedkar considered the North-South divide “a very serious matter” and feared that it “may lead to the breakup of India”. The South has never given any reason for one to feel that way. It has always upheld the integrity of India. But in the larger national interest, it is important to listen to the southern leadership over delimitation and develop mechanisms taking them on board.

The writer, president, India Foundation, is with the BJP