Churn and change in three states
The Opposition parties must firmly push back. BJP will be the conservative pole. Other political choices and alternatives must be preserved for India to remain a democratic, federal and secular country
The Assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory have brought about a dramatic change in three — Keralam, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Assam and Puducherry have voted for the status quo.
It is not possible to write a single narrative on the elections. Each state has produced a distinct narrative. Keralam is a straightforward story. The UDF and the LDF have alternated in ruling the state for several decades. The sequence was broken in 2021 when the LDF, under Mr Pinarayi Vijayan, was re-elected for a second term. The Congress put in place a new leadership (PCC and CLP) and the party has functioned in the last 5 years as a true Opposition with renewed vigour. The payoff is visible. The UDF has an obligation to govern and deliver results that will keep the UDF partners together, and advance secularism, economic progress and prosperity, and federalism.
The Tamil Nadu story is complex. The DMK, supported by the Congress and other secular parties, was elected in 2021 with a solid majority. It undoubtedly delivered on two fronts — economic growth and welfare measures. Apparently, there were other factors that weighed with the electorate. The unknown factor was the entry of Mr Joseph Vijay, a film hero who has a legion of fans, especially among the youth and women. Since the announcement of the calendar of the elections, a wind started blowing; it gathered speed and turned into a storm in the last 10 days before the polling date; swept across 108 constituencies; but did not go further. It was a spectacular debut for a two-year-old political party. Most candidates were unknown names and faces, and few campaigned. The candidate was ‘Vijay’ everywhere. Mr Vijay’s few short speeches, video memes and many film songs constituted the ‘campaign’. TVK was 11 short of a simple majority but, in order to forestall President’s Rule and avoid another election, Congress (5), CPI (2) , CPI(M) (2) and VCK (2) have decided to offer support.
West Bengal is the real story that has the potential to alter the direction of the country. The secular parties in West Bengal — Congress, Trinamool Congress and CPI(M) — fought separately against the BJP that had strengthened itself over the last 10 years. Besides, S.I.R. in West Bengal erased a large number of voters and left a deep scar on democracy. There are numerous instances where the son/daughter was a voter but the father/mother was not. Families were divided into voters and non-voters. The judiciary and make-shift judicial remedies let down millions of voters and thousands were disenfranchised. Besides S.I.R., the weight of three terms was a huge millstone around the neck of the Trinamool Congress.
The defeat of Trinamool Congress, portends grave developments: The BJP is the sole party or in coalition governments ruling the West (Maharashtra, Gujarat and Goa), much of the Hindi heartland, the East and the North East. Figuratively, the Vindhya mountain range is a barrier to the BJP’s entry into the five Southern states. Its Herculean efforts to enter Keralam and Tamil Nadu were firmly rebuffed by the electorate (leaving the BJP with 3 and 1 seats, respectively). However, its control over the rest of India is nearly complete.
Despite winning only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha in 2024, the BJP has passed the following contentious Bills in Parliament: The Wakf (Amendment) Act, ߩ Jammu & Kashmir Local Bodies (Amendment) Act, ߩ Taxation Laws (Amendment) Act, ߩ and National Sports Governance Act, 2025.
Other controversial Bills are in the offing, including the anti-democratic ‘One Nation One Election’ Bill. Despite lacking the numbers, the BJP introduced the controversial Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill to repeal and re-enact a Bill for women’s reservation that had been passed in September 2023. The new Bill’s real purpose was to push delimitation and alter the number of LS seats in each state. The Bill was defeated by the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. If the BJP continues its winning spree, the government will attempt to amend the Constitution to pave the way for an authoritarian state within the trappings of a parliamentary system. BJP’s next goal will be a unitary Constitution (bury federalism), Hindutva as the prevailing ideology (bury secularism), capitalism as the economic model (bury the welfare state) and eventually a one-party state (bury democracy).
The Opposition parties must firmly push back. BJP will be the conservative pole. Other political choices and alternatives must be preserved for India to remain a democratic, federal and secular country. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc gained partial success in 2024, but failed to build on the momentum. The bloc seems to be struggling and stumbling, but that is the only instrument to challenge the BJP.
After the election, Ms Mamata Banerjee (Trinamool Congress) has promised to strengthen the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. Mr M K Stalin (DMK) has not said a word adverse to the bloc. From his past statements (“BJP is my ideological enemy”), it may be possible to draw Mr Vijay (TVK) into the bloc. It is true there are fundamental differences among the constituents of the bloc, but these differences should be confined to the State-level and unity should be forged at the National-level. It will require a sense of urgency, dialogue and perseverance.
